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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 10 November 14
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1' 15 CLOSING PRICE OF US$ 49.58 ON LAST FRIDAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost just US$ ...
Monday, 10 November 14
SGX'S API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.44 ON 7 NOV, LOST 4.08% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.78 (-4.08%) month over month and US$ 1.41 (-2.11%) w ...
Monday, 10 November 14
MOZAMBIQUE SIGNED CONTRACT WITH ETA STAR OF UAE FOR OPEN CAST COAL MINE IN TETE - AIM
- ETA Star to build slurry pipeline over the 600 kilometers to Beira in Mozambique to transport coal.
- The viability studies show the presence o ...
Monday, 10 November 14
YEAR 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SHOWS A WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 3.74 (-5.63%) month over month and US$ 2.19 (+3.37%) we ...
Sunday, 09 November 14
CAPE INDEX UP 3.06%; PANAMAX INDEX FELL 4.05%
COALspot.com: The BDI was almost at same levels compared to last week closing or just increased 0.77 pct from last week. The BDI was closed at 1437 ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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