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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 November 14
PANAMAX: WITNESSED A FAIRLY STABLE MARKET IN THE ATLANTIC
COALspot.com: Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market noted another weekly increase, clouds of uncertainty returned mid-week onwards, as the mini ...
Wednesday, 12 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
COALspot.com: The fight continues between the low-cost iron ore producers and the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. We are moving into a ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
FACING CHALLENGES AND MEETING OPPORTUNITIES - INTERNATIONAL EPC CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION
Press Release: SKYCONNECTION and TRANSEVENT, which is fully supported by the Institution of Engineers Indonesia and Ministry of Industry of the Rep ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.65 FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery decreased US$ 2.83 (-5.10%) month over month and US$ 1.35 (-2.50%) week ove ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S OCTOBER COAL SHIPMENTS SLIPPED 7.40% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,115.7 mil ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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