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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 14 November 14
MORE NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA TO HELP STABILISE CHINA PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings has said possible additional natural gas supplies from Russia's OAO Gazprom to China via the Altai pipeline would h ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
SLOWER AND LOWER HAS BEEN THE TREND OF THE PANAMAX IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We are experiencing an oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic which is out numbering the amount of cargoes, Fearnleys broker says in its lat ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S REBOUND HINGES ON IRON ORE OVERSUPPLY ISSUES MOVING FORWARD - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
“One man’s benefit, is another man’s demise” is a phrase which can be used to describe today’s situation in the dry b ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
COAL MINISTER WANTS INDIA TO STOP COAL IMPORTS IN TWO OR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: India to ramp up coal production to a billion tonnes by 2019 from its current level of 490 million tones. According to Power and Coal ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
MODERN DRY BULK SHIPS' PRICES START FIRMING UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While the main story of the past few weeks has been the rebound of the dry bulk market, which has been a result of increased Chinese iron ore impor ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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