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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES FREE FALL; SLUMPS TO 69-MONTH LOW
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in November. HBA for t ...
Monday, 17 November 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 52.75
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.77 (-3.25%) month over month and US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) day ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.73 (-2.67%) month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0.16%) da ...
Sunday, 16 November 14
THE BDI LOST 12.59% WEEK ON WEEK; THE BCI LOST 19.95%
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 12.59 percent to 1256 point week on week on Friday 14 November. All the segments were also most down this week. The cape ...
Friday, 14 November 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 08
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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