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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 18 November 14
VALEMAX DEAL TO DETERMINE DRY BULK MARKET'S FATE - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Vale’s accord to sell and lease four Valemax vessels to COSCO might have negative repercussions on dry bulk freight rates. Vale has committed ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DELIVERY Q2' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 49.55; DOWN 4.10% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 66.31; UP 1.33% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has gained US$ 0.27 (+0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.87 (+1.33%) week ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
CHEAP OIL PRICES COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTING MAP - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tanker owners have enjoyed a rather healthy 2014, but as the year draws to a close, the fall of oil prices is bound to reshape traditional, as well ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SKULD ISSUES URGENT NOTICE ON BANKRUPTCY OF OW BUNKER A/S
Further to the Association’s advices of 7 November 2014, more information has come to light with respect to the potential impact and scale of ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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