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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 20 November 14
HANDY: INDO ROUNDS ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF US$ 10K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we have experienced firmer rates this week much lead by the grain activity out of USG. Vsls open in the USG can achieve in ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS INCREASES ON THE BACK OF HEIGHTENED FREIGHT RATE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of favorable market conditions through the acquisition of more dry bulk carriers. According to shipbroker ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
INDONESIA FUEL-PRICE RISE A CLEAR, POSITIVE REFORM SIGNAL - FITCH
COALspot.com: Indonesia's hike of more than 30% in administered fuel prices, announced on 17 November, provides a clear, positive signal of the ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
CAPES WERE UNDER PRESSURE; LOST 20% WITHIN A WEEK
COALspot.com: " The negative environment in which the week prior ended, marked this past week as well, which closed off on Friday noting the f ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - BY KATERINA RESTIS
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared as a worldwide health emergency by the World Health Organization and has had a great im ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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