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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 December 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST $3.37 M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3,37 (-5.33%) month over month and US$ 1.58 (-2.57%) ...
Monday, 15 December 14
Q1' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 51.45 ON 12 DEC
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.74%) closed at US$ 51.45 on 12 December month over ...
Sunday, 14 December 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell 12.12 pct to 863 points week ending 12 December 2014.
Th ...
Friday, 12 December 14
LIMITED TRADING AND AN OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED HANDY SIZE SHIPS TO DOWN IN USG
Handy
We have seen the TA spot market come down this week lead by limited trading and an oversupply of tonnage in the USG, Fearnleys said in its ...
Friday, 12 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 3.4% W/E DECEMBER 6
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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