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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 19 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION REACHED APPROXIMATELY 19.8 MMST; UP 1.0% WOW
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HANDY: SOFTER TONE; PANAMAX: QUIET WEEK; CAPESIZE; PAINFUL WEEK
Handy
A softer tone for rates and volumes for the Supras, perhaps less apparent in the Pacific the last week before the season holidays and good ...
Thursday, 18 December 14
INDONESIA TO REVISE UP COAL OUTPUT TARGET TO 460 MILLION TONS IN 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian government has revised up its next year coal output forecast to 460 million tons from its previous forecast of 421 million ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
CAPES RATES SLIPPED BELOW $5,600/DAY, FELL 84% YOY
COALspot.com: In the very rare occurrence when the BCI stands below the BDI, words to describe market sentiment are probably poor, said Intermodal ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL SHANGHAI, SNP TEAM
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, we are all witness to the second hand market prices softening day by day. Any new deal surfacing t ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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