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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 08 December 14
GOVERMENT TO WITHDRAW CNC STATUS OVER SUSPECTED FLAWS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to review the clean and clear (CnC) status held by ...
Monday, 08 December 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SLIP W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.10 on 5 December after losing US$ 0.55 (-1.04%) month over ...
Sunday, 07 December 14
SUPRAMAX S8 ROUTE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index fell heavily week on week.
The BDI lost around14.83 pct within last five working day an ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With t ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
MUNDRA PORT MAKES HISTORY BY HANDLING THE LARGEST BULK CARRIER TO CALL ON WEST COAST OF INDIA
COALspot.com: Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd, India’s largest port developer and part of Adani Group, yesterday said its Mundra Port successf ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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