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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.60 PMT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.18 (-0.27%) month on month ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CONTINUES ITS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.7 ...
Monday, 15 December 14
WILL TANKERS BENEFIT FROM REEMERGENCE OF FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market has been seeing high freight rates for some time now, riding on the back of low oil prices, which are boosting demand from develo ...
Monday, 15 December 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CRASHES THROUGH $65
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in December. HBA for t ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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