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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 10 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS, INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: As 2014 is coming to an end, we look back to what has happened during the year and notice that SnP activity has been particularly sof ...
Wednesday, 10 December 14
WORLD HARD COAL MARKET 2014: PRODUCTION AND TRADE STAGNATING, IMPORTS TO GERMANY AND EUROPE ON THE DECLINE
Press Release: German Coal Importers Association (VDKi) criticizes regulations ordering reduction of CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants as ...
Tuesday, 09 December 14
PRESSURE ON CHINA COAL MINERS TO CONTINUE DESPITE GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that Chinese coal mining companies will continue to be pressured by low prices, which will persist despite recent ...
Tuesday, 09 December 14
Q4' 2015, FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 49.02 W/E 5 DEC
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.2 ...
Tuesday, 09 December 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.84 (-2.91%) month over month and US$ 0.95 (-1.52%) we ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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