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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 23 December 14
SHIPOWNERS ARE FINALIZING MORE DEALS AS YEAR END COMES CLOSER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
With the 2014 year just a few days before waving goodbye, shipowners are looking to close their pending deals in both the newbuilding and S&P m ...
Monday, 22 December 14
Q2'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 0.30 LOWER THAN Q1'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.67 (-5.81%) month over month and US$ 0.35 (-0.58%) ...
Monday, 22 December 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ARE HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.71 per MT (-3.24%) and closed at US$ 51.02 on 19 December month ...
Sunday, 21 December 14
PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA FALLS FURTHER
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index lost heavily week on week.
The BDI was down 6.95 percent week over week and closed at 8 ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HOW WILL LOWER BUNKER PRICES AFFECT THE SUBSTANTIAL OVERCAPACITY IN DRY BULK MARKET? - BIMCO
As bunker fuel costs have come down from USD 600 per tonnes to USD 330 per tonnes in the past 6 months, much talk about increased ship speed have s ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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