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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly de ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q4'15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL $ 3.85 IN A MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 2.13 (-3.17%) month on month ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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