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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 30 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT AT -0.2%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Monday, 29 December 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS: REGULATORY RISKS? - CLARKSONS
In recent years, Chinese seaborne coal imports have surged, registering average growth of 67% p.a. between 2009 and 2013 to total 265mt. However, t ...
Monday, 29 December 14
BULK MARKET ENDS YEAR ON SOUR NOTE, SHIPBROKER SEES 'BUMPY ROAD AHEAD' - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2014 was supposed to be the year that the dry bulk market would stage a comeback and a sustainable one for that matter. However, while for the most ...
Monday, 29 December 14
Q1'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $59.42
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.51 (-5.58%) month over month and US$ 0.08 (-0.13%) ...
Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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