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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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