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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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