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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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