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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 25 January 15
PANAMAX FREIGHT RATES STILL FALLING
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly down this week to 720 points. The BDI lost 2.83 pct week on week.
The cape index continued its upward trend ...
Friday, 23 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 17 UP 2.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
PANAMAX: A SOFTER TONE AND OVERALL A SLUGGISH MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has experienced yet another week with slow activity and softening rates in both hemispheres, broker Fearnleys AS ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
BUMI RESOURCES POSTS NET INCOME OF $13.3 MILLION 9M-2014
COALspot.com: Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal miner, reported today that, the company has recorded a net income of $13.3 million for ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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