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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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