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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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