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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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