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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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