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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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