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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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