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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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