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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q1 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 47.87 FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 23
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 gain week over week and declined month on month.
The Q1 swap has decline US$ 0.9 ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP 4.5% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.28 per MT (-0.54%) month over month and increased US$ 1.23 ( ...
Monday, 26 January 15
OVERSUPPLY, AMPLE STOCKPILES, AND LACKLUSTER UNDERLYING STEEL DEMAND KEPT COKING COAL PRICES LOW IN 2014
COALspot.com: Coking coal prices (FOB & CFR) fell 15% and 18% respectively during the year, amidst persistent oversupply, ample inventory and s ...
Monday, 26 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY Q2 COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has fell ...
Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
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