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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q1 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 47.87 FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 23
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 gain week over week and declined month on month.
The Q1 swap has decline US$ 0.9 ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP 4.5% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.28 per MT (-0.54%) month over month and increased US$ 1.23 ( ...
Monday, 26 January 15
OVERSUPPLY, AMPLE STOCKPILES, AND LACKLUSTER UNDERLYING STEEL DEMAND KEPT COKING COAL PRICES LOW IN 2014
COALspot.com: Coking coal prices (FOB & CFR) fell 15% and 18% respectively during the year, amidst persistent oversupply, ample inventory and s ...
Monday, 26 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY Q2 COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has fell ...
Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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