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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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