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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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