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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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