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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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