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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 08 February 15
BDI FELL CONTINUOUSLY HIT A THREE DECADES LOW
COALspot.com: This week Baltic Exchange Dry Freight Index (BDI) fell continuously hit a three decades low.
The BDI continuously fell and was d ...
Friday, 06 February 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 1.1% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 20.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 06 February 15
SHIP DAMAGED BY FIRE CAUSED BY PIRATES FOUND TO BE CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS - TAYLOR WESSING
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The High Court was asked to determine a number of preliminary issues, including whether a vessel was a constructive total ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
BDI HAS NOW FALLEN A LEVEL CLOSE TO THE INDEX'S HISTORIC LOW - INTERMODAL
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in this instance just one look at the tables above is enough to understand the great pressure the ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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