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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 08 February 15
BDI FELL CONTINUOUSLY HIT A THREE DECADES LOW
COALspot.com: This week Baltic Exchange Dry Freight Index (BDI) fell continuously hit a three decades low.
The BDI continuously fell and was d ...
Friday, 06 February 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 1.1% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 20.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 06 February 15
SHIP DAMAGED BY FIRE CAUSED BY PIRATES FOUND TO BE CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS - TAYLOR WESSING
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The High Court was asked to determine a number of preliminary issues, including whether a vessel was a constructive total ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
BDI HAS NOW FALLEN A LEVEL CLOSE TO THE INDEX'S HISTORIC LOW - INTERMODAL
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in this instance just one look at the tables above is enough to understand the great pressure the ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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