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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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