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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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