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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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