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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 14 February 15
SHALE GAS AND TIGHT OIL ARE COMMERCIALLY PRODUCED IN JUST FOUR COUNTRIES - EIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The United States, Canada, China, and Argentina are currently the only four countries in the world that are producing com ...
Friday, 13 February 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 10% DECLINE
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 February 15
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED SHIP OWNERS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MARKET ON CRASHING DRY BULK MARKET AND EUROZONE CRISIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Financing issues have started to tighten the noose in the throats of small and medium-size ship owners, who were already facing problems over the p ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
CAPESIZE: THE BEST DESCRIPTION FOR THE MARKET IS, FLAT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The handy and supra market is also being affected by the marginal volume of activity in the commodity sales. We see a small upturn in the T ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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