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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 14 February 15
SHALE GAS AND TIGHT OIL ARE COMMERCIALLY PRODUCED IN JUST FOUR COUNTRIES - EIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The United States, Canada, China, and Argentina are currently the only four countries in the world that are producing com ...
Friday, 13 February 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 10% DECLINE
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 February 15
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED SHIP OWNERS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MARKET ON CRASHING DRY BULK MARKET AND EUROZONE CRISIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Financing issues have started to tighten the noose in the throats of small and medium-size ship owners, who were already facing problems over the p ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
CAPESIZE: THE BEST DESCRIPTION FOR THE MARKET IS, FLAT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The handy and supra market is also being affected by the marginal volume of activity in the commodity sales. We see a small upturn in the T ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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