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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
Sunday, 15 February 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUALLY DIPPED IN RED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index continues its decline and fell 5.18 pct to 530 points week on week due to falling commodity prices and declining ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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