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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
Sunday, 15 February 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUALLY DIPPED IN RED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index continues its decline and fell 5.18 pct to 530 points week on week due to falling commodity prices and declining ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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