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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 19 February 15
PANAMAX: NOPAC AND AUSSIE ROUNDS ARE DONE IN LOW/MID $ 4000; TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA CLOSER TO THE $5000 MARK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has not seen any firming rates in front of the Chinese New Year and still suffering on low activity in both hemi ...
Wednesday, 18 February 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO RECOVER IN LATE 2015 - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Strong trade growth, moderating fleet development and deployment of new fuel efficient vessels are expected to lead to a recovery in dry bulk shipp ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
WHO PAYS THE SUEZ CANAL FEES? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This was an appeal from an arbitration award on a point of construction in relation to the wording of an addendum to a ch ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
BUOYANT WAVES IN RECENT YEARS: GLOBAL SHIP INVESTMENT SINCE THE CRASH - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anxiety about fleet expansion is a recurring feature of world shipping markets. Within the global maritime community, worries about the vast amount ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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