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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 19 February 15
PANAMAX: NOPAC AND AUSSIE ROUNDS ARE DONE IN LOW/MID $ 4000; TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA CLOSER TO THE $5000 MARK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has not seen any firming rates in front of the Chinese New Year and still suffering on low activity in both hemi ...
Wednesday, 18 February 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO RECOVER IN LATE 2015 - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Strong trade growth, moderating fleet development and deployment of new fuel efficient vessels are expected to lead to a recovery in dry bulk shipp ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
WHO PAYS THE SUEZ CANAL FEES? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This was an appeal from an arbitration award on a point of construction in relation to the wording of an addendum to a ch ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
BUOYANT WAVES IN RECENT YEARS: GLOBAL SHIP INVESTMENT SINCE THE CRASH - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anxiety about fleet expansion is a recurring feature of world shipping markets. Within the global maritime community, worries about the vast amount ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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