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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 19 February 15
PANAMAX: NOPAC AND AUSSIE ROUNDS ARE DONE IN LOW/MID $ 4000; TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA CLOSER TO THE $5000 MARK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has not seen any firming rates in front of the Chinese New Year and still suffering on low activity in both hemi ...
Wednesday, 18 February 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO RECOVER IN LATE 2015 - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Strong trade growth, moderating fleet development and deployment of new fuel efficient vessels are expected to lead to a recovery in dry bulk shipp ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
WHO PAYS THE SUEZ CANAL FEES? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This was an appeal from an arbitration award on a point of construction in relation to the wording of an addendum to a ch ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
BUOYANT WAVES IN RECENT YEARS: GLOBAL SHIP INVESTMENT SINCE THE CRASH - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anxiety about fleet expansion is a recurring feature of world shipping markets. Within the global maritime community, worries about the vast amount ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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