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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 ROSE 3.39% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.90 (+3.39%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.08  ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $1 HIGHER THAN Q3
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.12 per MT (+6.44%) month over month and fall US$ 0.43 (-0.83%) w ...
Sunday, 22 February 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX LOST ALMOST 3.2% OR 17 POINTS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, one of the economic indicators that monitors the health of the world's economy by tracking the price of shi ...
Friday, 20 February 15
GOVT SET TO INCREASE COAL OUTPUT TARGET THIS YEAR - JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is planning to increase its coal output target this year as the government seeks to offset the ongoing de ...
Friday, 20 February 15
U.S. PRODUCED AROUND 19.2 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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