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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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