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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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