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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 01 March 15
BDI INDEX SLIGHTLY UP CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE PANAMAX, SUPARAMAX AND HANDY SIZE INDICES
COALspot.com: The freight market saw some gains this week and BDI was up 5.26 pct closed at 540 points. However the Cape index failed to follow BDI ...
Friday, 27 February 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AN ESTIMATED 14.0% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 16.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET COULD REBOUND FROM HISTORICAL LOWS IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market could exit from its historical lows in the coming weeks, as Chinese buyers reenter the market after the holiday celebrations. T ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
COAL POLICY RISK: HIGHER ROYALTIES FOR IUP HOLDERS - BAHANA SECURITIES | JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry plans to raise coal royalties charged to mining operation permit (IUP) holders by the end of the first qu ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR POSITIVE MOMENTUM, BUT PROSPECTS REMAIN DIM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) inched a bit higher over the past couple of sessions and the Chinese are returning to the market after a week long hi ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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