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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 01 March 15
BDI INDEX SLIGHTLY UP CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE PANAMAX, SUPARAMAX AND HANDY SIZE INDICES
COALspot.com: The freight market saw some gains this week and BDI was up 5.26 pct closed at 540 points. However the Cape index failed to follow BDI ...
Friday, 27 February 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AN ESTIMATED 14.0% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 16.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET COULD REBOUND FROM HISTORICAL LOWS IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market could exit from its historical lows in the coming weeks, as Chinese buyers reenter the market after the holiday celebrations. T ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
COAL POLICY RISK: HIGHER ROYALTIES FOR IUP HOLDERS - BAHANA SECURITIES | JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry plans to raise coal royalties charged to mining operation permit (IUP) holders by the end of the first qu ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR POSITIVE MOMENTUM, BUT PROSPECTS REMAIN DIM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) inched a bit higher over the past couple of sessions and the Chinese are returning to the market after a week long hi ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
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