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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 03 March 15
Q4' FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 2% LOWER COMPARED TO Q2 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 47.47
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose month on month and declined week over week.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 2.24 ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: Q2 UP 9.60%; Q3 UP 9.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 5 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY REACHED $ 57.50 PMT W/E 27 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.37 (+2.44%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.42 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT OF KOMIPO TO IMPORT 140K OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 140,000 (70 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ROSE 6.89% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.35 per MT (+6.89%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (0.78%) week on ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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