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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 03 March 15
Q4' FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 2% LOWER COMPARED TO Q2 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 47.47
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose month on month and declined week over week.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 2.24 ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: Q2 UP 9.60%; Q3 UP 9.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 5 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY REACHED $ 57.50 PMT W/E 27 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.37 (+2.44%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.42 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT OF KOMIPO TO IMPORT 140K OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 140,000 (70 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ROSE 6.89% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.35 per MT (+6.89%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (0.78%) week on ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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