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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS: STEAMING FORWARD - CLARKSONS
Coal-fired power stations comprise around 60% of India’s power output, and with domestic supply issues and favourable international coal pric ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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