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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 08 March 15
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS TRENDING UP
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to see gains this week and all the indices were rose except for Cape index. The BDI was increased 4.62 p ...
Friday, 06 March 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX: IS THIS POWERFUL INDICATOR SIGNALING A GLOBAL RECESSION? - STREET AUTHORITY
Although memories of the Great Recession linger, a case can be made that better days lie ahead.
That’s because central banks around the ...
Friday, 06 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 3.5% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
PANAMAX : THE ATLANTIC ROUND IS NOW PAYING AROUND US$ 5K PER DAY
COALspot.com: Handy - The activity in the handy/supra segment is back. “ We see more fresh cargo in the market for 2nd half March dates ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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