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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 08 March 15
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS TRENDING UP
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to see gains this week and all the indices were rose except for Cape index. The BDI was increased 4.62 p ...
Friday, 06 March 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX: IS THIS POWERFUL INDICATOR SIGNALING A GLOBAL RECESSION? - STREET AUTHORITY
Although memories of the Great Recession linger, a case can be made that better days lie ahead.
That’s because central banks around the ...
Friday, 06 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 3.5% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
PANAMAX : THE ATLANTIC ROUND IS NOW PAYING AROUND US$ 5K PER DAY
COALspot.com: Handy - The activity in the handy/supra segment is back. “ We see more fresh cargo in the market for 2nd half March dates ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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