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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 08 March 15
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS TRENDING UP
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to see gains this week and all the indices were rose except for Cape index. The BDI was increased 4.62 p ...
Friday, 06 March 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX: IS THIS POWERFUL INDICATOR SIGNALING A GLOBAL RECESSION? - STREET AUTHORITY
Although memories of the Great Recession linger, a case can be made that better days lie ahead.
That’s because central banks around the ...
Friday, 06 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 3.5% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
PANAMAX : THE ATLANTIC ROUND IS NOW PAYING AROUND US$ 5K PER DAY
COALspot.com: Handy - The activity in the handy/supra segment is back. “ We see more fresh cargo in the market for 2nd half March dates ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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