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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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