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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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