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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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