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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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