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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DROP $ 3.65 - 4.0/T W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has fell US$ ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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