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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DROP $ 3.65 - 4.0/T W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has fell US$ ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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