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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 13 March 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.3% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 March 15
ADARO RECORDED A 7% INCREASE IN EBITDA OF $877 MILLION IN 2014
“Coal market continues to be difficult and challenging” – Adaro Energy
The world’s Top 5 thermal coal exporter, ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
CAPESIZE : ACTIVITY IS LOW; PANAMAX: BIT MORE ACTIVITY; HANDY: A FIRMING WEEK
Handy
It has been a firming week in both hemispheres this week and especially in the Pacific, says Fearnleys AS in its week's week report.
...
Thursday, 12 March 15
COAL MINERS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE AS GLUT CONTINUES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia’s major coal miners reported a significant drop in their earnings last year as the sharp drop in the global demand, mainly from Chi ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DROP TO $47.33 A TON IN THE WEEK ENDED MAR.6
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.37 (0.78%) month ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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