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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 13 March 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.3% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 March 15
ADARO RECORDED A 7% INCREASE IN EBITDA OF $877 MILLION IN 2014
“Coal market continues to be difficult and challenging” – Adaro Energy
The world’s Top 5 thermal coal exporter, ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
CAPESIZE : ACTIVITY IS LOW; PANAMAX: BIT MORE ACTIVITY; HANDY: A FIRMING WEEK
Handy
It has been a firming week in both hemispheres this week and especially in the Pacific, says Fearnleys AS in its week's week report.
...
Thursday, 12 March 15
COAL MINERS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE AS GLUT CONTINUES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia’s major coal miners reported a significant drop in their earnings last year as the sharp drop in the global demand, mainly from Chi ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DROP TO $47.33 A TON IN THE WEEK ENDED MAR.6
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.37 (0.78%) month ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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