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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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