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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 18 March 15
Q2 INDONESIAN COAL SWAP DROP 1.45% M-O-M; GAIN 0.63% W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and gained week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.70 (1.45%) ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
GAS TO CHALLENGE COAL IN THE ASIAN POWER GENERATION MIX - WOOD MACKENZIE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Wood Mackenzie says that coal is facing increasing competition from gas in the power sector. Coal has dominated as the fu ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
RIO TINTO PAID US$ 7.1 BILLION IN TAXES IN 2014
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has published its latest Taxes paid report, detailing the US$7.1 billion in taxes paid by the company around the world in 2 ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
NEARLY 17% OF US COAL PRODUCTION UNECONOMIC AT CURRENT MARKET PRICING - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: Close to 17% of forecast 2015 US coal production is at risk of idling or closure, totalling 162 million short tons (Mst), as these mi ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
Q3' SA COAL SWAP CLOSED $57.30 PMT W/E 13 MARCH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and gained week on week.
The Q2 swap has fe ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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