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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 18 March 15
Q2 INDONESIAN COAL SWAP DROP 1.45% M-O-M; GAIN 0.63% W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and gained week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.70 (1.45%) ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
GAS TO CHALLENGE COAL IN THE ASIAN POWER GENERATION MIX - WOOD MACKENZIE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Wood Mackenzie says that coal is facing increasing competition from gas in the power sector. Coal has dominated as the fu ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
RIO TINTO PAID US$ 7.1 BILLION IN TAXES IN 2014
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has published its latest Taxes paid report, detailing the US$7.1 billion in taxes paid by the company around the world in 2 ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
NEARLY 17% OF US COAL PRODUCTION UNECONOMIC AT CURRENT MARKET PRICING - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: Close to 17% of forecast 2015 US coal production is at risk of idling or closure, totalling 162 million short tons (Mst), as these mi ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
Q3' SA COAL SWAP CLOSED $57.30 PMT W/E 13 MARCH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and gained week on week.
The Q2 swap has fe ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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