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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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