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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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