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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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