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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 30 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT AT -0.2%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Monday, 29 December 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS: REGULATORY RISKS? - CLARKSONS
In recent years, Chinese seaborne coal imports have surged, registering average growth of 67% p.a. between 2009 and 2013 to total 265mt. However, t ...
Monday, 29 December 14
BULK MARKET ENDS YEAR ON SOUR NOTE, SHIPBROKER SEES 'BUMPY ROAD AHEAD' - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2014 was supposed to be the year that the dry bulk market would stage a comeback and a sustainable one for that matter. However, while for the most ...
Monday, 29 December 14
Q1'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $59.42
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.51 (-5.58%) month over month and US$ 0.08 (-0.13%) ...
Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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