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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 January 15
BDI DECLINED 8% ON WEEK; BCI LOST 31%
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its decline in the first week of this year or lost 8 pct week over week. The BDI was closed at 709 points whi ...
Friday, 09 January 15
U.S. EASTERN SPOT STEAM COAL PRICES FELL IN 2014; ROSE IN WEST - EIA
U.S. Eastern spot steam coal prices declined in 2014 compared to 2013 levels because of a decline in steam coal exports.
According to U.S. Ene ...
Friday, 09 January 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 2.2% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 08 January 15
INDONESIA PRESSES ON WITH HIGHER COAL ROYALTY FEE TO BOOST STATE REVENUE - JG
The Indonesian government is pressing on with its plan to raise the royalty charged to coal miners in order to increase state revenue, but the move ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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