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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q2 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 8.66% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined by US$ 3.48 (-5.73%) month over month and US$ 2.35 (-3.94%) week ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q1' 2015 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN Q2 & Q4 2015 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 7.21 ...
Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A ye ...
Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the y ...
Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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