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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last s ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
COMMODITIES AREN'T PRIMED FOR A REBOUND DURING 2015: SHIPPING COULD BENEFIT FROM LOWER PRICES - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In the recent past, higher commodity prices were driven by an increase in demand from developing countries, which spelled good news for ship owners ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 46.97 PMT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has fell US$ 1.53 (-3.15 ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.51% LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.56 per MT (-3.0%) month over month and US$ 1.03 (-2.0%) week ove ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
MORE PITFALLS FOR OWNERS LOOKING TO TERMINATE FOR UNPAID HIRE - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is a debatable point whether or not the obligation to pay hire under a time charter is a condition of the contract or ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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