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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 25 January 15
PANAMAX FREIGHT RATES STILL FALLING
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly down this week to 720 points. The BDI lost 2.83 pct week on week.
The cape index continued its upward trend ...
Friday, 23 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 17 UP 2.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
PANAMAX: A SOFTER TONE AND OVERALL A SLUGGISH MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has experienced yet another week with slow activity and softening rates in both hemispheres, broker Fearnleys AS ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
BUMI RESOURCES POSTS NET INCOME OF $13.3 MILLION 9M-2014
COALspot.com: Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal miner, reported today that, the company has recorded a net income of $13.3 million for ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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