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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q1 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 47.87 FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 23
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 gain week over week and declined month on month.
The Q1 swap has decline US$ 0.9 ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP 4.5% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.28 per MT (-0.54%) month over month and increased US$ 1.23 ( ...
Monday, 26 January 15
OVERSUPPLY, AMPLE STOCKPILES, AND LACKLUSTER UNDERLYING STEEL DEMAND KEPT COKING COAL PRICES LOW IN 2014
COALspot.com: Coking coal prices (FOB & CFR) fell 15% and 18% respectively during the year, amidst persistent oversupply, ample inventory and s ...
Monday, 26 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY Q2 COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has fell ...
Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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